This is a classic example of how greyhound racing can be unpredictable and why “paper form” doesn’t always translate to the track.
The short answer is: Vinnies Star was 33/1 because, on paper, he was significantly slower than the other dogs and had failed miserably in this grade just two weeks prior.
However, he won because of “The Break” (the start). In greyhound racing, specifically in lower grades like A7, the dog that leads often wins simply because they avoid the traffic jams behind them.
Here is the detailed breakdown of why the bookies priced him at 33/1, and how he managed to upset the odds.
1. Why he was 33/1 (The “Paper” View)
If you were a bookie or a punter looking at this race card before the race started, Vinnies Star looked like a terrible bet for four clear reasons:
Massive Speed Disadvantage: This is the biggest factor.
The Favorite (Free Moment): regularly runs times around 29.50 – 29.60.
Vinnies Star: His best recent winning time was 29.88 (in a lower grade).
The Math: A difference of 0.40 seconds is roughly 6–7 lengths. On paper, the favorite should have beaten Vinnies Star by a massive margin.
Previous Failure in Grade:
Vinnies Star had tried this A7 grade once before (on Dec 30th). The result? He finished last (6th) and was beaten by 12¼ lengths.
Punters hate backing a dog that has already proven it “can’t handle the grade.”
Old Age vs. Youth:
Vinnies Star is 4 years old (born Aug 21). In greyhound years, he is a veteran.
The favorite and the second-place dog are youngsters (born May 23, approx 2.5 years old).
The market almost always assumes the old dog is declining and the young dogs are improving.
Rising in Class: He had just been promoted from A8 (a lower class). Usually, when a dog moves up a grade, they struggle initially.
2. Why he won (The Race Reality)
He won “easily with no bumps.” That is exactly why he won.
The “Ping” (The Start):
Look at the Sec (Sectional/Split) time in the result. Vinnies Star hit a 4.42. This was one of his best recent starts.
Now look at the Favorite (Free Moment in Trap 3). He hit a 4.57.
In greyhound racing, a “missed break” of 0.15 seconds is fatal. The favorite was left behind immediately.
Trouble-Free Run:
The comment for Vinnies Star is “QuickAway, AlwaysLed”. Because he started first, he had clean air. He could run his own race on the rail without bumping into anyone.
Meanwhile, the faster dogs behind him likely got in each other’s way (even if no major bumps were recorded, just having to run wide or check stride slows them down).
The Favorite Underperformed:
Vinnies Star won with a time of 30.12.
Note that the favorite (Free Moment) usually runs 29.50.
If the favorite had run his normal race, he would have beaten Vinnies Star by 8 lengths. The favorite ran a “stinker” (30.36), which allowed the slow 33/1 outsider to steal the prize.
Summary
The price of 33/1 was actually correct based on the data available before the race. Vinnies Star was statistically the slowest dog.
He won not because he ran a “super” race, but because he started fast and the superior dogs started slow.
Have you seen our Dog of the Day post today?