🇬🇧 & 🇮🇪 UK & Ireland Steamers Sorted by Market Swing
| Horse & Race | Opening Odds | Best Current | Market Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Parlando
Chelmsford City 20:30
|
12/1 | 7/2 | 11.65% |
|
Windbreaker
Chelmsford City 17:00
|
11/4 | 11/8 | 10.19% |
|
Lord Byron
Exeter 13:30
|
7/4 | 5/6 | 10.08% |
|
Marseillan
Chelmsford City 17:30
|
12/1 | 4/1 | 9.21% |
|
Dust Cover
Southwell 17:22
|
9/4 | 6/5 | 8.64% |
|
Paradise Walk
Southwell 14:52
|
8/11 | 4/9 | 8.29% |
|
Ten Carat Harry
Southwell 14:22
|
7/5 | 4/5 | 6.56% |
|
Fort Augustus
Southwell 15:52
|
20/1 | 6/1 | 6.52% |
|
Kuiama
Chelmsford City 18:00
|
6/1 | 3/1 | 5.65% |
|
Bluey
Exeter 13:00
|
7/4 | 5/4 | 5.63% |
|
Law Of Average
Southwell 16:52
|
16/1 | 13/2 | 5.22% |
|
Insuspense
Chelmsford City 19:00
|
15/2 | 4/1 | 5.17% |
|
Firewalker
Southwell 13:52
|
5/6 | 8/13 | 5.10% |
|
On The Bayou
Exeter 12:30
|
11/4 | 7/4 | 4.95% |
|
Saint Cyr De Pail
Exeter 14:30
|
4/1 | 5/2 | 4.38% |
|
Dream Pirate
Southwell 15:22
|
11/2 | 7/2 | 3.92% |
|
Bystander
Chelmsford City 20:30
|
15/2 | 9/2 | 3.84% |
|
Operation Manna
Exeter 14:00
|
14/1 | 15/2 | 3.70% |
|
Overlooked
Southwell 13:22
|
11/2 | 4/1 | 3.65% |
|
Albert Cee
Southwell 16:22
|
10/1 | 11/2 | 3.61% |
|
Neptune Legend
Southwell 16:22
|
15/2 | 9/2 | 3.36% |
|
Ourbrowneyedgirl
Exeter 12:30
|
80/1 | 18/1 | 3.34% |
|
Down To The Kid
Southwell 15:22
|
8/1 | 5/1 | 3.32% |
|
Calyxoh
Chelmsford City 20:00
|
15/2 | 5/1 | 3.09% |
|
Damascus Steel
Southwell 17:22
|
12/1 | 7/1 | 3.07% |
|
Calabrian Soldato
Chelmsford City 18:00
|
33/1 | 12/1 | 3.05% |
|
Charging Bull
Chelmsford City 18:30
|
11/4 | 9/4 | 2.90% |
|
Gyenyame
Exeter 14:00
|
7/2 | 5/2 | 2.83% |
|
Hes An Angel
Southwell 16:22
|
10/1 | 6/1 | 2.78% |
Data filtered for UK & Ireland events only.
Implied Probability Shift
| Horse (Race) | Original % | Current % | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lord Byron Exeter 13:30 (7/4 → 5/6) |
36.4% | 54.6% | ▲ +18.2% |
| Windbreaker Chelmsford 17:00 (11/4 → 11/8) |
26.7% | 42.1% | ▲ +15.4% |
| Parlando Chelmsford 20:30 (12/1 → 7/2) |
7.7% | 22.2% | ▲ +14.5% |
Insight: Lord Byron has flipped from a contender to a heavy odds-on favourite, indicating the market believes he is in a different league to his rivals on his stable debut.
Market Analysis: Why They Are Moving
1. Lord Byron (Exeter 13:30)
The Angle: The “Aidan O’Brien” Recruit.
Reasoning: This horse was formerly trained by the master Aidan O’Brien on the flat in Ireland, showing decent form (2nd in a maiden at Navan). He makes his hurdles debut today for a new yard (Faye Bramley), but the key factor driving the price crash (7/4 → 5/6) is the booking of Champion Jockey Harry Cobden.
The “Tell”: Cobden rarely rides for this small yard, but they teamed up recently to win the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham with Glengouly. The market clearly believes this is another “plotted” job in a weak 4-runner race.
2. Windbreaker (Chelmsford 17:00)
The Angle: The “Haggas” Improver.
Reasoning: Trained by William Haggas (who has a 22% strike rate at Chelmsford), this 2-year-old by Sea The Stars caught the eye when 5th on debut at Kempton.
The “Tell”: The aggressive move (11/4 → 11/8) suggests he has come on massively for that run. He is being backed to blow away the newcomer Saxon Street, with connections expecting a “marked step forward” now he knows his job.
3. Parlando (Chelmsford 20:30)
The Angle: Class Drop & Handicap Plot.
Reasoning: This horse has been running in Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps. Today, he drops into a Class 4 for the first time in years.
The “Tell”: He has slipped to an Official Rating of 78 (below his last winning mark). The move from 12/1 into 7/2 is a classic signal that connections have been waiting for him to slide down the weights and drop into this easier grade to strike.
| Horse & Race | Current Odds | Value Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Klycot (Exeter 13:30) | 11/4 | The Form Pick: While Lord Byron is all hype and potential, Klycot has actually run over hurdles (4th at Sandown). If the favourite's jumping is sloppy on debut, this experienced rival picks up the pieces. |
| Saxon Street (Chelmsford 17:00) | 7/4 | The Danger: A newcomer from the powerful Gosden yard. If Windbreaker hasn't improved as much as the market thinks, this fresh horse is the obvious alternative. |
Here is the Smart Strategy table for the Exeter 13:30.
Important Note: Because there are only 4 runners declared in this race, standard “Each-Way” betting is not available (bookmakers only pay places on 5+ runners).
Therefore, a traditional “Bad Each-Way” strategy isn’t possible here. Instead, I have calculated a “Cover Bet” (Dutching) strategy. This allows you to back the heavy favourite Lord Byron to win, while placing a smaller “Saver” on his main rival Klycot, ensuring a profit if either of the top two wins.
Dutching Calculator (Total Stake: £20)
| Horse | Odds | Required Stake | Potential Return | Net Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lord Byron (The Banker) |
5/6 (1.83) | £14.05 | £25.76 | +£5.76 |
| Klycot (The Danger) |
10/3 (4.33) | £5.95 | £25.78 | +£5.78 |
| TOTALS | - | £20.00 | ~£25.77 | +£5.77 |
Risk Warning: This strategy covers approx 75% of the market probability. You only lose if the 3rd horse, Way Of Stars (approx 3/1), wins.
📋 Today's "Money Moves" Watchlist
| Time | Horse (Race) | The Gamble | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | Lord Byron Exeter |
5/6 (Opened 7/4) |
upcoming... |
| 17:00 | Windbreaker Chelmsford |
11/8 (Opened 11/4) |
upcoming... |
| 20:30 | Parlando Chelmsford |
7/2 (Opened 12/1) |
upcoming... |
Tip: If Lord Byron wins early (13:30), expect the prices on Windbreaker and Parlando to shorten even further as punters roll their winnings onto the next "gamble" of the day.
